🚁 The Time Value of Risk
My Koko Head Conundrum
Last Friday, I woke at 6 AM to drive to Oahu's eastern side to Koko Head Crater for the intense climb–1,048 steps with a 912-foot incline. It’s nature’s stair stepper, steep with no shade. This wasn’t my first rodeo. In fact, I brought a romantic interest here for our second date to see if he had the must-have quality of being brave and up for a physical challenge.
But this time felt different. Walking behind a man dressed in all red, briskly climbing with a huge first aid kit attached to his belt, I wondered what was up. I’d never seen a Honolulu fire department man on Koko Head before. My friend Stef, a regular at Koko, dismissed it, saying he was probably just someone in training.
He was not.
About 50 steps from the top, I saw a 40-year-old woman with a short blonde pixie haircut, reminiscent of Jane Lynch’s character in Glee. On the left of the path, she was lying on a step, bright red blood spurting out of her head across her face. Despite her injury, she looked calm, composed, and grateful for her rescuer. I overheard the HFD man asking her what happened and what medications she was on. She remarked, “I fell down about ten steps.” That’s a ten-foot drop onto unforgiving wood planks and metal tram tracks. Double yikes.
To be respectful, I stopped rubbernecking. The path was wide enough to pass her on the right easily. While climbing to the top, the deafening sounds and whipping twigs from a helicopter's rotor blades greeted me. The yellow helicopter swiftly airlifted the distressed hiker from the volcano to the hospital.
The following day, I pulled my moped to the side of the road three times to let ambulances pass by for unrelated health emergencies. With each passing ambulance, the previous day’s memory jolted back to me of seeing the hiker cling to her precious life.
So, what am I getting at with this?
Life is fleeting. Witnessing someone else doing exactly what I was doing and facing such a situation is a priceless reminder of the fragility of human life.
This got me thinking…
What does healthy risk-taking look like for me?
How can I, like anyone else, assess risk when uncertain?
The Timing of Risks
The timing of taking risks matters in terms of health. Today, climbing Koko Head Crater doesn’t seem risky, but in 12 years, when I’m 40, I might change my mind. Because humans age the way we do, risks today become more uncertain tomorrow, so taking action today is better than waiting.
I’ve been thinking about my life this way. Which risks are best to take today rather than later?
Money has more earning potential today than in the future, and certain life experiences also have more learning potential today.
Risk is not something I seek out because it induces a sense of worry and fear. But what if there was something to help with that…
Scary vs. Dangerous Risks
As a Risk Management Intern in 2018 in Detroit, I learned that companies have several lines of defense. More importantly, with my attention always on risks, I became more averse to taking chances in all areas of life, from dating to making new friends and starting new hobbies. Comfortable with my interests, single life, and other unfulfilling friendships, I told myself it was too dangerous.
Now, I recognize the difference between 'scary' and 'dangerous' risks.
Jim Koch, self-made beer billionaire, provides a great example of this. Dissatisfied with his safe and cushy corporate job at BCG, he made a bold choice. In 1984, despite his father calling it "the dumbest f---ing idea he’d ever heard," Koch left BCG to start a beer company. Leaving his job was the scariest decision of his life, but staying would have been dangerous because he wasn't happy and would have lived with regrets. Many things in life are scary but not dangerous, and vice versa. Koch's decision to take the risk and leave his job led to the successful founding of Samuel Adams beer.
Looking at my life through this framework of scary vs. dangerous risks has supported me in making big decisions.
Taking risks is an essential part of growth and learning. Recognizing whether a risk is uncomfortably scary or genuinely dangerous helps me approach opportunities with greater confidence.
While descending from Koko Head Crater that cloudy morning, I let go of any guilt for climbing. Exerting my body made me stronger and felt okay. It was within my capabilities and didn’t feel dangerous.
With any risk, it takes trust. Trust means walking into the unknown, listening to your body, and knowing you are resilient.
Life's precious moments and the risks we take are invaluable, and the timing of those risks is crucial.
Embrace the time value of life experiences and take the risks that matter today rather than waiting for a more uncertain tomorrow.
What does healthy risk look like for you?
🙏Shoutouts
This piece wasn’t written alone. Thanks to Russell Smith, Tom Jones, Shanece Grant, April Resnick, and Dan McGlinn for contributing to this piece.
To Tim Ferriss for his framework that I list below. Here’s the link to it. And also, I loved listening to Dax Shepherd interview him on the Armchair Expert where he mentioned it.
To Polina Pompliano for writing and sharing research in her The Profile Dossier on Jim Koch, the Self-Made Beer Billionaire
To
for sharing his 2-by-2 graphic in his writing of Wisdom Nuggets #4
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Aloha fellow learn-it-all 👋
Greetings from Honolulu, Hawaii
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❓Question to think about
What’s the last risk you took? Was it dangerous or scary?
📜🖋 Poetry Corner
Stepping out of Comfort
One hot summer day, a girl felt too comfortable and frisky, So she decided to be a little risky She set up a stand of bracelets with lemonade, But without sales, she felt like a failing grade, Unfamiliar with this feeling, she closed up shop quickly.
🎬 Watching
Tim Ferriss' Fear-Setting Framework To Assess Risk
Fear is scary because it is undefined and is like having an emergency brake on for no reason. As the stoic philosopher Seneca said, “We suffer more in our imagination than in reality.” This is where Tim Ferriss' fear-setting framework comes into play. Ferriss suggests that we:
Ask ourselves, “What if I…”.
Define the worst-case scenario for taking the risk. Define 10 outcomes.
List out possibilities to prevent the worst-case scenario with steps you can take to prevent this scenario from happening. List out 10 solutions.
Recovery repair plan. If the worst does happen, how can you fix it or get back on your feet? Repair is what you could do to help if it happened or who you could ask for help.
List the potential benefits of an attempt or partial success. Look at the ceiling. By learning new skills, will you feel more confident or recharged?
What are the costs of inaction? Visualize it across the timespan of 6 months, 1 year, 3 years. Ask: if I avoid this action, what might my life look like? Can I undo or reverse this? Can I return to where I am now if this doesn’t work out as planned?
📖 Reading
Author of The Power of Regret, Daniel Pink, researched and found that as time passes and people age, their regrets from inaction increase.
If I always think in my head, I’ll never take action due to paralysis from my analysis. I’ve learned that breaking down fear into manageable parts makes me realize that most fears are not as debilitating as I imagine. I can “right-size” the fear if I understand how to mitigate it.
You can read my book review here.
🎧Listening
“Cool Down” by Kolohe Kai.
It's another fiery afternoon (so hot, so hot)
Hotter than the month of June
So we should go beach now (cool down)
Cool down where the water's right, yeah
Let's grab our boards and run, run, run, run
Run to the nearest shore
School is pau, let's go now
And hele out the door, yeahThe waves is on fire, the day is getting hot
This is my desire to the one to hit the spot, yeah
Cool down
Kolohe Kai has been one of the most popular artists in Pacific Island Reggae music for over a decade. It is the project of singer/songwriter Roman De Peralta, born and raised on the island of Oahu, has produced 10 Island Reggae hits since signing a record deal at age 17.
🔍Word to define
Risk (n): a situation involving exposure to danger: flouting the law was too much of a risk | all outdoor activities carry an element of risk.
[in singular] the possibility that something unpleasant or unwelcome will happen
[as modifier] : a high consumption of caffeine was suggested as a risk factor for loss of bone mass. • [with modifier] a person or thing regarded as a threat or likely source of danger: she's a security risk | gloss paint can burn strongly and pose a fire risk.
Risk (vb): expose (someone or something valued) to danger, harm, or loss
From Letter 12: Brené Brown defines vulnerability as uncertainty, risk, and emotional exposure.
🌟Five Quotes to Inspire
“We suffer more often in imagination than in reality.” -Seneca
“I think that success is really boring. And I think that success isn’t particularly instructive. And I don’t think that we learn a whole lot about who you are if we just know about your successes. When you’re successful, it’s really easy to talk about yourself. It’s not a challenge. For me, what makes a person interesting is when they’re contextualized. You know all of the good and the bad and the complex.” — Guy Raz, the podcaster and author of How I Built This, from Coffee Monday
“Two of the key questions in life: How do I grow? How do I manage risk? You need to do both if you wish to survive and excel.”— James Clear
“We live in an ambiguous world, and everything has a little bit of risk involved in it.” — Annie Duke, professional poker player and master of uncertainty
"I think about decisions in three ways: hats, haircuts, and tattoos.
Most decisions are like hats. Try one and if you don’t like it, put it back and try another. The cost of a mistake is low, so move quickly and try a bunch of hats.
Some decisions are like haircuts. You can fix a bad one, but it won’t be quick and you might feel foolish for awhile. That said, don't be scared of a bad haircut. Trying something new is usually a risk worth taking. If it doesn't work out, by this time next year you will have moved on and so will everyone else.
A few decisions are like tattoos. Once you make them, you have to live with them. Some mistakes are irreversible. Maybe you'll move on for a moment, but then you'll glance in the mirror and be reminded of that choice all over again. Even years later, the decision leaves a mark.
When you're dealing with an irreversible choice, move slowly and think carefully." — James Clear
📸 Photo of the Week
I’m grateful to have these friends here in this photo in my life. How lucky am I to witness each end to a beautiful day at a beach I can walk to across a grassy, joyous park?!
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I appreciate you reading this!
If ideas resonated, I’d love you to press the heart button, leave a comment, reply to this email, or reach me at vermetjl@gmail.com. If you forgot who I am, I welcome you to my online home.
Keep on learning 😁
Mahalo 🌺
Jen
PS - if you enjoyed this, you’d probably like reading 😱Letter 94: Why am I chasing fear?, 🤔 Living without Regrets is Impossible, or Sail with skin in the game
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